With the year’s largest renewal date approaching, Axco’s data and regulatory experts set out the questions that turn anecdote into evidence.
The 1 January renewal is the year’s largest for reinsurance and a major date for commercial insurance, but the real work starts well before that date. Submissions are going out and underwriting appetite is being set now.
This year, those renewal discussions are taking place in a market that is not moving in one direction, Axco’s ‘Global Insurance Renewals: Critical Considerations for Success’ webinar heard. After several hard years, parts of the property market have started to soften, while other lines are still dealing with claims inflation and rising loss costs. In this kind of market, averages and headlines tell you little, the devil is in the detail.
The terms behind every renewal are built on past results and today’s rules. That means looking at enough history to see a full cycle, at the right level of detail and early enough to act. Here are Axco’s five essential considerations ahead of the renewal season.
1. Where is this market in the cycle?
The relationship between premiums and claims is often the first sign of where a market is heading, because it usually moves first. Take a line running at a 60% loss ratio. If claims grow by 8% a year and premiums by 4%, the loss ratio approaches 70% within a few years, before anyone has changed the price.
In Western European property, Germany’s premiums rose by nearly 12% while its loss ratio fell almost 12 percentage points to around 58%, giving buyers evidence to push for better terms. In Iceland, the loss ratio rose from 62% to 78% in two years, so buyers there should budget for increases.
2. What has changed in regulation?
The theme this year is tightening supervision. Regulators are enforcing non-admitted rules more strictly, particularly for marine cargo in Africa, where Kenya and Ghana now check for local cover at customs. Egypt requires foreign reinsurance brokers to be on an approved list from 31 October 2026. Meanwhile, insurance premium taxes and other levies are changing in France, Belgium and Mauritius.
3. Who is driving the local market?
As more risk is placed locally, knowing who can write it matters more. Watch for an insurer gaining market share while its loss ratio worsens faster than those of its peers. That usually means share bought on price, and a correction tends to follow at renewal. Equally, a smaller insurer with steady growth and a low loss ratio may be capacity you have not yet approached. Concentration matters too. If two or three carriers write most of a line and one pulls back, there are few places to go.
4. What regulation is in the pipeline?
Legislation rarely arrives in one go. It moves through consultation, drafts and delays. Brazil’s new property and casualty framework, which applies to new and renewed policies from 5 January 2027, was first reported by Axco during its consultation stage almost a year earlier. Tracking changes as they progress turns a December surprise into an October plan.
5. Can your carrier pay?
A competitive quote, reported profit and capital above the regulatory minimum can still hide a rising combined ratio, reliance on investment income or reserve releases. Capital also means little without understanding the local rules behind it. Some markets have significantly raised minimum capital requirements, while other markets still apply far lighter regimes than Solvency II.
Asking the questions now
Each side of the table reads these signals differently. Insurers will want to know whether their pricing is adequate, reinsurers where their cedants are under stress while brokers and risk managers are looking to see where their leverage lies. Whatever the question, the approach is the same: work through these five considerations now, not in December.
Axco Navigator provides company-level insurance market data, including line-of-business analysis, for more than 170 countries, helping insurers assess competitive positioning and opportunities across global markets.