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The world Ahead 2023

Every year, Axco’s Global Risk team looks at the major themes which we think will play an important role in the coming months.

The year ahead may not be easy, and it certainly isn’t easy to predict. We offer our thoughts and hope that it encourages you to consider how these underlying trends might affect you and your business.

Section 2: Down the Rabbit Hole

So she was considering in her own mind (as well as she could, for the hot day made her feel very sleepy and stupid).

Whether the pleasure of making a daisy-chain would be worth the trouble of getting up and picking the daisies, when suddenly a White Rabbit with pink eyes ran close by her.

There was nothing so very remarkable in that; nor did Alice think it so very much out of the way to Rabbit say to itself, "Oh dear! Oh dear! I shall be late"

Section 3: The Rabbit Took a Watch Out of His Waistcoat

Looked at it, and then hurried on, Alice started to her feet, for it flashed across her mind that she had never before seen a rabbit with either a waistcoat-pocket, or a watch to take out of it, and burning with curiosity, she ran across the field after it, and fortunately was just in time to see it pop down a large rabbit-hole under the hedge.

What our analysts say on...

The world economy

"It takes over a year for interest rates to affect inflation, and that period is only just beginning; the sheer pace of this hiking cycle has not been fully felt yet"

Oil price pressures

"That leaves the world facing likely upward supply-side pressures but a much more complicated demand side. While a global economic slowdown will absolutely reduce demand, the extent of this effect will depend on the depth of the recession, something that has looked less severe in recent weeks"

The Russo-Ukraine war

"While we back Ukrainian morale and tactics, we would caution, as we did last summer, against overstating the likelihood of a complete Russian collapse absent significant political changes in Moscow"

The erosion of democracy & free trade

"A brewing cost-of-living crisis in many developed nations, plus an impending global slowdown, leads us to predict a continuing erosion of democracy in 2023, a trend we noted in last year’s report"